Warrier's blog

Sustainable prosperity - Moneylife  Online comments: Issues of governance and regulation raised here need immediate attention. This is the right time for government to think 'differently' and act keeping in view the national priorities which were always known, as Indian Constitution had incorporated the principles that government should follow to make the life of 'WE THE PEOPLE' (to whom it was 'given')better. The message from AAP, the repeated assertions by Congress for over 65 years about people's rights, Modi's promise of right governance...all should converge to make BHARAT emerge and take the position in the world it deserves. More and more open expression of views like this will help opinion to evolve in favour of the majority of the country's population waiting for a CHANGE. M G Warrier

Law changed to appoint Misra principal secy to PM | Business Standard Online comments: The view expressed by former finance secretary EAS Sarma in this context which reads, “The independence of regulatory authorities is pivotal to any economic reform strategy. That is the reason why regulators are given a fairly high status but precluded from accepting any post-retirement appointment from the government. This applies to all regulatory authorities and Trai as well.” should be kept in view while government takes a re-look at the law governing all such and similar appointments. Unfortunately, there has been heavy dependence on expediency in selection and terms of appointment to high level posts in the past. The ordinance in the present context is to ensure that the new government does not ‘violate’ an existing legal provision, irrespective of its rationale and the gesture should be seen only from that perspective. If the opposition succeeds in preventing this appointment ...

Too lax an approach to fighting inflation | Business Line The Hindu Business Line, May 31, 2014 Letters Right spirit The article “Too lax an approach to fighting inflation” by SS Tarapore (May 30) doubles up as a background note on the RBI and a guide for those talking about expectations and fulfilment after the announcement of the monetary policy. One only hopes the views of the veteran economist who has had the opportunity to be at the highest level in monetary policy formulation during challenging times are taken in the right spirit by those in charge of fiscal and monetary policy formulation. MG Warrier Thiruvananthapuram Online response: Setting out the purport of policy as ‘alleviating the suffering of the masses and generating a climate of confidence which would boost savings and investments’(see conclusion) and systematically analysing the context in which Dr Raghuram Rajan will be presenting the second monetary policy review of 2014-15, the arti...

RBI’s role in Modi government - Moneylife Online comments posted on May 28, 2014: MG Warrier says: I am posting this comment a week after this article has been online. The pre-Election apprehensions about post-Election scenario have given way to cautious optimism factoring in the possibilities emerging from a stable government. So far, the indications are that Modi Government believes in the strength of the institutions in India to carry out their mandated responsibilities. Though the political leadership had shown signs of weakness or symptoms of ill-health occasionally, by and large bodies like Election Commission, CAG, RBI, Judiciary at higher levels, Defence Forces, Scientific Community and the bureaucracy in India have a history of consistent mature performance, irrespective of the permutations and combinations in coalition governments at Centre aand States. Modi’s stance so far is congenial for smooth functioning of institutions responsible...

CHANGE IS POSSIBLE I am keying in this note on May 17, 2014. Will be on a holiday for a week from tomorrow. Yesterday, INDIA was watching the election results with hope, anxieties, sorrow, happiness...depending on the individual's position in life. I had started this 'Warrier's Blog' in 2008 with the following words: "Jyotirgamayah The traditional wisdom tells you that if you remove lack of awareness(agyan) knowledge(gyan) will emerge. Same thing about light. Once darkness is removed, light dawns. All good things such as wisdom, harmony, light, good food, appropriate arrangement for all creatures to live in this universe and timely changeover of one form to another are all built in in the making of the universe. It is man's greed and curiosity that has altered the balance. So it is the responsibility of man to set it right, now. To site one example, the ongoing efforts to find out the secrets of the beginning of the universe in which score...

Four challenges for new government: Rajan - The Hindu The observation by RBI Governor: “Growth, fiscal deficit, current account deficit and inflation — these are the four biggest macro-economic challenges and we have to work on all of them. They are all inter-related,” in response to the question about the main tasks for the new government, encapsulates the concerns bothering RBI. A change of guard in New Delhi is an opportunity to ‘stop, look and proceed’ on all policy issues affecting India’s future. As BJP leadership has already expressed its intention to bank on professionalism and expertise, media should not nag Dr Rajan about his continuance. He has the potential to remain at Mint Road for another decade. In less than 9 months, Dr Rajan has prepared a ready to use roadmap for reviving the financial sector and economic growth, which should not be ignored by the new government.  M G Warrier

Letters: Banking on reserves | Business Standard This refers to the editorial "A window of opportunity" (May 14). A change of guard in New Delhi is an opportunity for the Reserve Bank of India and the government to "stop, look and proceed" on all policy issues affecting India's future. Maintaining the positive note in the market is essential, but equally significant is ensuring a smooth transition from the pre-May 16 rigidities to the post-May 16 scenario, and instilling confidence across divergent sectors and geographical areas that have different priorities. Such an approach will demand a thorough understanding of the country's resources by those who will be taking charge of governance in Delhi. They will have to map the resources irrespective of their ownership and prevent further leaks. Forex reserves are one of the indicators of a nation's financial strength and, therefore, building up reserves should be an ongoing process. M G Warr...

Retirement planning: The best way to stay safe, save and invest for retirement - Moneylife Online comments posted on May 15, 2014: Great effort indeed. The information needed to 'start early' does not reach the real 'clients' at the right time and even if it reaches, the age group 30-50 just postpone even thinking about future as the savings needed will eat into their comforts. Now that all traditional safety nets are being destroyed or are getting disintegrated(yes, I have defined benefit pension schemes and joint family system uppermost in my mind), there is no escape from creating a well-balanced asset base to support oneself post-retirement or let me put it bluntly, post-job! Though it is not supported by any research, as one who has been watching the happenings in the wages-income-prices areas, my advice to the employed who depend on wages for survival is, save minimum 30 to 40 per cent of current income for retirement, assuming effective service period as 25 yea...

Banking on governance | Business Standard

A window of opportunity | Business Standard   Online comments posted on May 14, 2014:  This is a timely reminder to both the central bank and GOI. A change of guard in New Delhi is an opportunity to ‘stop, look and proceed’ on all policy issues affecting India’s future. Financial sector is important, maintaining the positive notes in the market is essential, but equally important and significant is ensuring a smooth transition from pre-May 16 rigidities to post-May 16 scenario instilling confidence across divergent sectors and geographical areas which are at varying stages of development and therefore have different priorities.   Such an approach will demand a thorough understanding on the part of those who will be taking charge of governance in Delhi, of the sources and uses of country’s resources, mapping them irrespective of their ownership and ensuring appropriate measures for preventing further leakages. Forex reserves maintained by a country is one ...

VITALINFO: Far from sacking him, Raghuram Rajan is the man th... : ..... However, there is one indisputable fact: far from thinking of replacing the RBI governor, the new government would do well to allow ...  A well researched article. For those who may not find time to read full article, concluding paras quoted below: "However, there is one indisputable fact: far from thinking of replacing the RBI governor, the new government would do well to allow him the flexibility and freedom to keep a close watch on  inflation so that any future reform measures do not lead to serious inflationary consequences. Rajan knows this only too well, as he demonstrated last week when he said the government could fire him if it wanted but it was he as RBI governor who would set interest rates. A smart government will know that in this situation Rajan is one of the men the economy will depend on the most. Forget firing him, the government will need him for fire fighting. There are q...

VITALINFO: Music, Yes, but High-Pitched : My View on   " A Modi Victory may Not be Music to Rajan’s Ears ":  This refers to ‘A Modi Victory may Not be Music to Rajan’s... This serves as a high pitch background music, much needed during the interregnum between close of poll and announcement of final results on May 16. The welcome change of track from ‘Dr Rajan losing his job post-May 16’ to ‘the problems the RBI Governor will face on a Modi win’ will go unnoticed. Who cares for the rating among economists Dr Raghuram Rajan had before joining RBI?(For those who have forgotten: He was considered one among the 10 top economists of the world). Let us watch how he manages ‘surging inflows’, if it really happens. Anyway the figures of external debt and country’s forex reserves quoted in the story, though they have some relationship in the scheme of things, do not lead one to assume a crisis. After all the richest(?) country is sitting on a debt of $16 trillion o...

POSITIVE ATTITUDE Excerpted from the article “Setting Sails for Sales: Sales Management” by Dr Jitendra Rathore published in the Employment News, May 10-16, 2014 M G Warrier Right Attitude - A positive attitude resolves most of the problems we confront day on day. According to Charles Swindoll: The longer I live, the more I realize the impact of attitude on life. Attitude, to me, is more important than facts. It is more important than the past, than education, than money, than circumstances, than failures, than successes, than what other people say or do. It is more important than appearance, giftedness, or skill. It will make or break a company…a church…a home. The remarkable thing is we have a choice everyday regarding the attitude we will embrace for the day. We cannot change the inevitable. The only thing we can do is play on the one string we have, and that is our attitude. I am convinced that life is 10% what happens to me and 90% how I react. And so it is with you…w...

Rajan has failed, will have to go, says Swamy - The Hindu  Comments posted on May 12, 2014: Just a couple of comments on the following quotes from Dr Swamy: “If Rajan gets one more term you can safely say bye to all investment and therefore high growth in this country … he’s from [University of] Chicago so he is not fit for this country … there they believe that more free market the better but in India market failures take place and you’ve got to correct for that.” “We need to immediately drop interest rates … doesn’t mean that we do it in one go … there can be a road map but businesses must know that cost of capital will come down.” i)                    Dr Rajan’s term of 3 years as RBI Governor started only on September 5, 2013 and will end in September 2016 when, going by tradition, he may get an extension of term. So, it is too early to talk about ‘one more term’. Be...

Blinded by Hitler Bunker - The New Indian Express  Some wild thinking...Still, interesting reading... M G Warrier

Not an endorsement of nature - The Hindu The profound words “Inanimate objects are sometimes parties in litigation ... So it should be as respects valleys, alpine meadows, rivers, lakes, estuaries, beaches, ridges, groves of trees, swampland, or even air that feels the destructive pressures of modern technology and modern life ... The voice of the inanimate object, therefore, should not be stilled.” should be read again and again in the Indian context and perhaps in several geographical areas pet-named third world. Perhaps, in several situations, the voices of not only inanimate objects, but those of ‘citizens’ are also being stifled. M G Warrier, Thiruvananthapuram

Future of RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan after election - Moneylife

How best to negotiate a job offer | Business Line Found this article interesting...

In search of a home away from home - The Hindu Online comments posted on May 6, 2014: This is a well researched piece deserving immediate attention of governments across geographical borders. From the plumbing assistant working under a sub-contractor for whom herds of workers are made available by yet other contractors, in the premises of a multistory building work site in Mumbai, and earns daily starvation wages, to the cricketer who has been ‘hired’ for a value in crores of rupees or dollars, belong to a category called ‘world citizens’. Both are dependent for their livelihood or ‘lifestyle’ on the rich and the powerful, who own and manage public resources wherever and whosoever they are. Both are ‘exploited’, not employed or accepted as partners in business. The human rights and social security issues arising from this situation has no sectoral or geographic boundaries and have much deeper economic and political implications. It is agonizing that such serious nat...

Economic Times, May 5, 2014 Recast Budget 2014 numbers but don’t let recast be driven by political vendetta Mythili Bhusnurmath   Monday May 05, 2014, 02:15 PM 1 in Share GDP growth at sub-5% for the second year running, high and persistent consumer price inflation at close to 10% for more than four years running, savings and investment ratios that are lower than the highs reached less than five years ago, an artificially-suppressed current account deficit, an artfully-contrived fiscal deficit and, now, the possibility of El Niño in 2014. On the economic front, all the ingredients for a perfect storm.   The only thing keeping the storm from breaking over our heads is the hope that after May 16, we’ll see a stable, credible political formation at the Centre. In any other circumstances, overseas investors would have turned tail and fled our shores, leaving...

Choosing the Chief Justice - The Hindu

GovernanceNow.com | After autonomy, the need to fix proper accountability of regulators

Human Character in Shifting Chairs - The New Indian Express

How to manage portfolio capital flows | Business Line

VITALINFO: MONETARY POLICY - A Welcome, Refreshing Approach :... : ..............In effect, for quite some time now, we have a ‘caged’ Monetary Policy. Top echelons in government, by habit, pre-empt any ...  Please read my article at page 14 of The Global ANALYST, May 2014 at www.theglobalanalyst.co or by following the above link. Thanks M G Warrier