Warrier's Collage on Saturday November 26, 2022 : Weekend Edition

Welcome To Warrier's COLLAGE On Saturday Weekend Edition November 26, 2022 Collage World Cup Highlights https://youtu.be/WfMf8NiHBXo 1) Break to win https://youtu.be/0cwtNOq_k4w 2) Stand-up Comedy : Manoj Prabhakar https://youtu.be/G3SLCdp8M3g (Link shared by : Sarada Nayar Chennai) Good Morning Nice Day M G Warrier A Messages/Responses 1) M G Warrier Collage Psychology Shared a link : https://www.healthline.com/health/baader-meinhof-phenomenon#what-it-is Excerpts : Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, or Baader-Meinhof effect, is when your awareness of something increases. This leads you to believe it's actually happening more, even if that's not the case. Why is your brain playing tricks on you? Don't worry. It's perfectly normal. Your brain is simply reinforcing some newly acquired information. B Current Affairs Annual Research Conference of RBI https://m.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=1339 Inaugural Address by Shri Shaktikanta Das, Governor, at the Annual Research Conference of the Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, November 19, 2022, Hyderabad Excerpts : Challenges Ahead for the Research Department The world we face today is aptly described by using the acronym ‘Vuca’, which stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. Many of the backward-looking models, that run on past data, may fall short of providing useful information and estimates for policy. The department must further strengthen its consultative approach to collect first-hand information directly from the stakeholders. When the department was faced with the challenge of explaining food inflation dynamics with greater certainty just before the pandemic, it conducted a nationwide survey of farmers, retailers and wholesalers. The department would repeat the survey next month to understand the changes brought out by the pandemic. The department also conducts a bi-monthly survey of retailers through its regional offices, collecting information from retailers on expected price changes of essential food items one-month ahead, which it uses in its nowcast of inflation. A team from the Bank is working jointly with the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) to develop a food inflation projection framework, involving eminent agri-experts and market leaders in different food items. Such initiatives must become the norm in other areas of research in the Bank. As I mentioned earlier, there is increasing use of Big Data and data generated by private sources for policy research. We cannot escape the fact that data is the new oil. The department may have to look at all such data, being mindful of ways to deal with misleading and noisy analysis that such data may at times throw up. For the research function in the Bank to remain effective, it would require constant upgradation of skills of the economists in the department, recognising the new possibilities in the information age and access to superior computing power at lower costs these days. While the Bank has multiple schemes for training, both in India and abroad, for an economist there are two best ways to acquire the required skills – first, study and write more research papers regularly (or learning by doing); and second, have a PhD that prepares you with all basic skills for conducting research. An Economics Benchmark report by centralbanking.com in December 2021 after a survey of 33 central banks found that on average, one in five economists in a central bank have a PhD. I am glad to note that the Reserve Bank compares well as one in four economists in our research department has a PhD. The Bank provides paid leave and financial incentives for staff to acquire PhD degrees and I hope in future our ranking would improve further. An integral part of skill upgradation would be embracing new techniques for applied research. With growing sophistication of the algorithms, the manifold increase in the three Vs of data – volume, velocity and variety, and the quantum leaps in computing, human intelligence can be used better for analysis, with AI/ML allowing automation of data processing. From the standpoint of the Bank, research is increasingly becoming important to almost every major function, as a result of which research units have been set up in other departments. That process needs to be sustained and scaled up pro-actively. Moreover, in a vast and diverse country like India, research on regional issues also merit policy attention. The department must internalise strategic medium to long-term research issues in its research agenda. Separate teams may work on such issues. This would help in identifying and maintaining a list of structural policy changes that can raise the growth trajectory of the economy in a sustainable and inclusive manner. The trifecta of deglobalisation, climate change and deeper penetration of technology appears to be the most anticipated trend for the future. This can be potentially disruptive, requiring strategies to mitigate the associated risks. The aftereffects of the three shocks I mentioned earlier are still unfolding and would warrant constant vigil. The research function of the Reserve Bank, therefore, must remain prepared to respond to these multiple possibilities as it has done in the past. Media Response : M G Warrier November 25, 2022 Getting forecasting right* This refers to the report "Frequent revisions, a challenge to monetary policy formulation" (The Hindu Business Line, November 25). It's common knowledge that the periodic monetary policy announcements from RBI go much beyond the changes in base rates which attract media attention and get scrutinized and commented upon by analysts and stakeholders. RBI Deputy Governor Patra was referring to the nature of inadequacies in the data on which the whole exercise of monetary policy formulation was dependent besides the external uncertainties. The only comfort for RBI is the availability of an efficient back office for the Monetary Policy Committee in the RBI's Economic and Policy Research Department where every third official is a Ph D. Other organisations like NSSO also need to upgrade their skills on an ongoing basis. Beyond the models built using technology based on available data, like Astrology, forecast and predictions relating to economic growth and inflation depend more on the intuitive skills of experienced seniors with research background and exposure to international developments in respective fields. M G Warrier Mumbai *Published on November 26, 2022 More : 1) Banking November 24, 2022 Credit-deposit ratio This refers to the report "Govt spending, excess SLR to support loan growth : SBI chief" (The Hindu Business Line, November 24). India is one of the first developing countries to recognise the potential of the banking system in playing a proactive role in nation building. SBI chief's optimistic revelations about the functioning of the banking system post-pandemic are soothing and comforting. By involving state machinery and non-government organisations in credit planning at every level from State to villages since early 1960's, ensuring adequate credit flow to priority sectors and monitoring Credit-deposit ratios India ensured an even spread of economic growth across geographies. It is unfortunate that, of late, this aspect of the role played by banks in India's economic growth doesn't get the attention it deserves. The signal in the SBI chief's observations that banks can stand where they are even with lagging deposit growth is disturbing. There should be disincentives for keeping excess SLR beyond a threshold limit and for keeping idle resources even outside the banking system. That's one way to ensure reasonable return on investment of individuals' savings. Banks should also be encouraged to improve branch network in underbanked areas and maintain adequate professional staff for fieldwork and monitoring of credit. The neglect of HR issues in banks also contributed to the blame about NPAs and write offs in PSBs. M G Warrier Mumbai 2) Rating & Ranking : N R Narayana Murthy https://youtu.be/2vzSwExIoNg I respect N R Narayana Murthy. But I am not happy about this statement, because this looks a typical "NRI" lament : 1) Patenting and Ranking are used by the so called developed countries to keep the catchment areas for cheap skilled youth safe. 2) Indian institutions including IIMs and IITs do not have adequate branding and marketing budgets. Murthy is aware. 3) High time we established in India rating and branding organizations of repute. We may have to wait for Modi 3.0 (not necessarily with Modi as PM. I'm referring to 2nd half of this decade) to change India's focus to redeeming self-respect. We're still under the hangover of western influence. No point in blaming. Technology and initial capital to start Infosys came from outside. 4) Please read my article published 7 years ago @moneylife : https://www.moneylife.in/article/rating-india-in-india/41349.html C Collage Profile : Vava Suresh https://youtu.be/BnyMLIaJMFk A report about Vava Suresh's recovery after a snake bite https://indianexpress.com/article/india/second-birth-vava-suresh-recovers-from-cobra-bite-leaves-hospital-7761287/ D Speaking Tree : Flow with life https://www.speakingtree.in/article/why-fight-with-life-learn-to-flow-with-it When someone speaks unpleasant words, don't create a conflict in your mind. Accept that it is others’ perception and others’ perceptions need not be true. Learn to be at peace with what is and that is possible if you totally accept the other. E Malayalam Collage 1) Malayalam Movie Khedda https://youtu.be/dYq8v4_f8oY A song sequence from Khedda https://youtu.be/Z0i2AhXasYI 2) Collage Food Corner Porrotta Puranam* https://youtu.be/2KuHVgnZsss *Link shared by K N Rajan F Leisure Books and memories https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/open-page/dissembling-as-an-act-of-love/article65075572.ece The next morning, I Googled and got Stefan Zweig’s The Invisible Collection in English. I read and reread it and could not resist the temptation to download it and share it with a few friends. The response was electric. None had heard of Zweig but all had greatly enjoyed the story. Some had looked up Zweig on the net and realised what a great and popular writer he had been during the 1920s and 1930s. He had fled Nazi Germany and eventually settled in Brazil where he and his wife committed suicide in 1942. The very humane dissembling in the story reminded me of another, Mashi, by Rabindranath Tagore, translated into English. It is the story of an aunt humouring her dying adult orphan nephew with accounts of his bride’s great acts of love for him. The bride had actually ‘escaped’ to her parents’ home. When a servant divulges the truth, the nephew understands what his aunt had been up to. He loves her all the more and dies soon after with his head in her lap. Bonus : Thousand finger banana bunch : https://youtu.be/dfdXKeoAKrk And... Peter: “I hate this time of the year. My wife and I can never agree on the holidays.... I want to travel to exotic places and stay in 5-star hotels , dance & have good time all days...." John : That sounds fun. What does she want to do?" Peter : "She wants to come with me!!!”.... ........................................................... SOORYA DAILY BULLETIN കളിയും കാര്യവും 25 TH NOVEMBER 2022 ............................................... G Quotes on snacks https://www.brainyquote.com/topics/snack-quotes


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