Monetary Policy Committee: The Right Move
Monetary
Policy Committee
The
Right Move*
M
G Warrier
This decade has seen Reserve Bank of
India(RBI) emerging as a centre of
attraction for almost all people, from Prime Minister Narendra
Modi to the poorest citizen in PM’s constituency Vaaraanasi. Earlier common
man had noted the Mahatma’s smile on the notes issued by RBI and identified the
central bank with one of its core functions, namely issue of currency. Two
successive outspoken governors, Duvvuri Subbarao and Raghuram Rajan, in their
own ways, have demystified Reserve bank of India. Today RBI is understood in
India, the way world understands it.
While Subbarao through his innovative
financial inclusion initiatives took the message of RBI to every nook and
corner of India, Rajan sent out a loud and clear message to the world that
India’s central bank has a functional team of professionals who can handle
several dimensions of central banking functions simultaneously. These two
governors took pains to study the evolution of RBI originally conceived as an
institution which would perform the functions similar to those the then Bank of
England was handling in Britain, into an organization participating in every
aspect of economic development, besides managing its core central banking
functions like regulatory and supervisory roles in the financial sector
together with currency management.
Like
Tatas once used to say, “There is some steel in everybody’s life”, today every
citizen’s fortune is linked to policies pursued by the Reserve Bank of India.
Monetary
Policy Committee
Contrary to the expectations of ordinary
humans like this writer who criticized the attempt by the Financial Sector
Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC) for writing a monologue report on dotted
lines to satisfy certain vested interests, brushing aside all dissents even
from within the Commission, we now find that the FSLRC report is being used as just
a reference point for initiating long overdue reforms in the financial sector.
The whole credit for this change of mindset in the finance ministry should go
to one individual Dr Raghuram G Rajan, who appeared on the scene at the right
time and like an avatar, disappeared from the scene after almost completing his
mission in about three years.
At the risk of repetition, let us recall
S S Tarapore’s May 2013 observations on FSLRC (quoted in January2016 issue of
The Global ANALYST): “The Commission recommends the setting up of a statutory Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) to take executive decisions on monetary policy with each
member having a vote and the Chairperson having a veto, which must be explained
with a public statement. The devil is in the detail.
There would be only two RBI members and
five external members appointed by the Government. The Ministry of Finance
nominee would be a non-voting member on the MPC but would articulate the
Government viewpoint. With Big Brother watching over their shoulder, brave
would be the external member who would deviate from the Government line. The
RBI would be better off with the present arrangement.
The leitmotif of the FSLRC is to charge
the gate of the temple of money with iconoclastic fervor. One prays that in
this internecine battle, RBI’s Pretorian Guards fight off the charge of the
Commissioners. One must remember that countries that destroy their central
banks destroy themselves.”
Tarapore retired as Deputy Governor, RBI
some twenty years ago. But post-retirement, literally till his last breath, he
remained a watchdog of the rights and responsibilities of the central bank
which he served for more than three decades. His writings and speeches during
the last two decades can easily be prescribed as a treasure of teachings on
policy formulation and implementation by RBI.
It is unfortunate that Tarapore did not
live to see the changes that RBI under the able leadership of Dr Rajan could
bring about in the concept of MPC. In effect, while the RBI Governor is now
unburdened of the individual responsibility of deciding on Monetary Policy, the
central bank could get the existing arrangement of Technical Advisory Committee
legalized and professionalized.
The six-member Monetary Policy Committee,
constituted under the new dispensation during the last week of September 2016, has
three renowned economists ( Chetan Ghate from Indian Statistical Institute,
Pami Dua from Delhi School of Economics and Ravindra Dholakia from IIM-
Ahmedabad) nominated by GOI, the Deputy Governor(R Gandhi) and the Executive
Director(Michael Patra) in charge of the concerned department in RBI as members
with RBI Governor as Chairperson. In case of a tie, Governor will have a
casting vote.
There is a conscious effort on the part of government to
broad-base decision making and infuse professionalism in processes, as is
evident from the accommodative approach to RBI’s views on MPC and choice of
government nominees from among the best
available experts in the field.
The newly constituted MPC, going by the profiles of its 6 members is a professional body of experts, each member capable of applying his/her mind while participating in deliberations. RBI is known for allowing free expression of views in In-house meetings. During the Technical Advisory Committee days, though the final call was to be taken by the Governor, he benefit of individual perceptions expressed by the TAC members had helped decision-making to a great extent. Since the time the constitution of MPC was announced, a section of analysts has been apprehensive of MPC dividing itself into Team A(RBI) and Team B (GOI) and voting for constituency interests, making casting vote by Governor essential to take decisions. This uncharitable lament brings disgrace to the professional integrity of individual members.
We need to give a fair chance to MPC to evolve itself as an expert body unburdening the RBI Governor from individual responsibility for every policy decision.
The newly constituted MPC, going by the profiles of its 6 members is a professional body of experts, each member capable of applying his/her mind while participating in deliberations. RBI is known for allowing free expression of views in In-house meetings. During the Technical Advisory Committee days, though the final call was to be taken by the Governor, he benefit of individual perceptions expressed by the TAC members had helped decision-making to a great extent. Since the time the constitution of MPC was announced, a section of analysts has been apprehensive of MPC dividing itself into Team A(RBI) and Team B (GOI) and voting for constituency interests, making casting vote by Governor essential to take decisions. This uncharitable lament brings disgrace to the professional integrity of individual members.
We need to give a fair chance to MPC to evolve itself as an expert body unburdening the RBI Governor from individual responsibility for every policy decision.
Dr. Rajan during his tenure as Governor felt that, for all the unpalatable monetary policy
decisions taken by the RBI by virtue of its position, the Government, the
Finance Ministry, the Industrialists, Public Sector banks, and common man,
affected by the decision were critical of RBI. The Governor had to bear
the brunt of the attack as though he had done great injustice for his personal
gains. Such a perception might have worked in favour of his support for a
formal committee approach to decision-making, more than the half-baked recommendations
on the subject by FSLRC.
In a way, MPC formalises and professionalises the existing
Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) which has been advising RBI Governor on
crucial issues concerning monetary policy. To the extent that TAC’s advice was
made known to the public, RBI has been trying to be transparent even where
Governor differed from the TAC’s perceptions. The present arrangement
unburdens RBI Governor from individual responsibility in decisions on monetary
policy and makes the MPC comprising experts more relevant.
The initial criticism that the Monetary Policy Committee suffers from imbalance of expertise as majority
members happen to be professional economists should now fade out. While all the three GOI nominees are renowned economists,
Governor, a Deputy Governor and an Executive Director from within RBI (one
a career central banker and another a career economist, both with decades of
relevant central banking and administrative experience) will be able to
provide inputs on needs and expectations of banking sector and the economy
in general.
In sum, the constitution of MPC strengthens RBI Governor's hands
and sends out a clear signal that GOI is serious about retaining RBI’s status
as an expert professional body. The MPC met for the first time on the
eve of October 4, 2016 Monetary Policy Announcement which saw a base rate cut
of 25 basis points. The decision by the MPC, reportedly, was unanimous. We need
not read much into the unanimity in the MPC about the first rate cut. Such
bodies have different ways of functioning, depending on the leadership provided
by the Chairperson.
In this case, the harmless observation
one can make, before the views of the MPC reaches public domain (after a
fortnight from the date of policy announcement) is, after the deliberations,
each one of the individual members would have decided to fall in line with the
idea of going for a rate cut. Other than their own perceptions about the path
inflation may take, the need to send out a message that the Committee will not
remain satisfied with ‘status quo’ and is willing to move forward and
experiment and the likely advancement of Union Budget presentation by a month
would also have weighed in favour of the decision.
Inflation
targeting
Having appreciated the introduction of
the concept of Committee approach to decision-making, let us not ignore the
changes in policy formulation and implementation it signifies. In sum, while
chasing the inflation target is the responsibility of Reserve Bank of India,
the central bank has lost control of the major weapon in its armory for
fighting inflation. The reference here is to the transfer of responsibility to
decide policy rates to MPC.
It was in this context that while
negotiating under the able leadership of Dr Rajan, RBI accepted a flexible and
moving inflation target ( 4 plus or minus 2 per cent with different milestones
to be achieved at different points of time). Non-achievement of inflation
target will have to be explained by RBI. Here what will matter is the way in
which RBI articulates its views on the need to align fiscal and monetary
policies to ensure optimum or ‘optimum possible’ economic growth, retaining the
inflation within the targeted levels. The new RBI Governor Urjit Patel may not
speak as often on these issues as his predecessor did, but is known for clarity
of his perceptions.
Patel spoke much less in his maiden
policy conference on October 4, but did not fail to put the records straight on
RBI’s stance on inflation targeting and clearly spell out his perceptions on
future course. He referred to the pursuit of self-imposed targets and framework
agreement with the government which preceded the amendments to the Reserve Bank
of India Act and the associated notification. He further clarified that now all
those ad hoc measures are superseded by the legal amendments and the
notifications on constitution of MPC and setting out the inflation target at 4
per cent by 2021 with a 2 per cent tolerance level.
There has been some criticism in the
media about the change in format of the Monetary Policy Statement issued after
October 4, 2016 review. Some analysts tried to read inconsistency in the
mention about upside risk of inflation and rate cut, forgetting that the rate
cut was in ‘ present tense’ and the possibility of upside risk was in future,
to control which measures outside monetary policy, which have more to do with
fiscal policy were also necessary.
Impact
of rate cuts on lending/deposit rates
While talking on rate cuts, one thing
the previous RBI governor Raghuram Rajan was sadly aware all through his tenure
was the slow trickling down of the impact of base rate reduction to the ultimate
retail lending rates of banks, while he noticed quick action by banks in
reducing deposit rates immediately following each rate cut. It is comforting to
find that there is continuity of thought process in RBI on this aspect also.
RBI Governor had this to say on the day of monetary Policy Announcement:
“I agree that the transmission through
bank loans is less than any one of us would have liked. We are hoping that over
the next quarter or two, keeping in mind that the government has also reduced
small savings rate, the MCLR calculation will throw up more transmission. The
transmission in new lending has been much better.”
This season, ICICI Bank, for instance,
reduced deposit rates by 15 to 25 basis points about a month prior to the
October 4, 2016 rate cut by RBI. GOI, in the name of linking small savings
rates to the yield on G Sec, nowadays reduce interests on small savings scheme
instruments including PPF off and on. In his observation quoted earlier, RBI
governor was referring to the the latest such reduction for the October-December
2016 quarter. The reduction was by 10 basis points(100 basis points= one
percentage point). Perhaps, GOI may have to introduce differential interest
rates, from a pure social security angle, offering interest at a percentage
point higher for savers who are solely dependent on interest income for
survival.
*****************
*A slightly edited version of this article
appears in the forthcoming issue of The Global ANALYST
Comments