RBI's Dividend Policy: Learn from Dr Raghuram Rajan
First Year Economics: There
is no free lunch. RBI Dividend Policy*
A fundamental lesson in economics is
there is no free lunch. This can be seen in the matter of the RBI dividend: Some
commentators seem to suggest that public sector banks could be recapitalized entirely
if only the RBI paid a larger dividend to the Government. Let me explain why matters
are not so simple.
If what follows is complicated, trust
me, it is. But pay attention, students, especially because it is about your money.
I am sure you will understand. How does the RBI generate surplus profits?
We, of course, print the currency held
by the public, as well as issue deposits (i.e. reserves) to commercial banks. Those
are our fixed liabilities. As we issue these liabilities, we buy financial assets
from the
market. We do not pay interest on our
liabilities. However the financial
assets we hold, typically domestic and
foreign government bonds, do pay interest. So we generate a large net interest income
simply because we pay nothing on virtually all our liabilities.
Our total costs, largely for currency
printing and banker commissions,
Amount to only about 1/7th of our total
net interest income. So we earn a large surplus
profit because of the RBI’s role as the manager of the country’s currency. This
belongs entirely to the country’s citizens.
Therefore, after setting aside what is needed to be retained as equity
capital to maintain the creditworthiness of the RBI, the RBI Board pays
Out the remaining surplus to the RBI’s
owner, the Government.
The RBI Board has decided it wants the
RBI to have an international AAA rating so that RBI can undertake international
transactions easily,
even when the Government is in
perceived difficulty– in the midst of the Taper Tantrum, no bank questioned our
ability to deliver on the FCNR(B) swaps, even though the liability could have been
tens of thousands of crores. Based on sophisticated
risk analysis by the RBI’s staff, the Board has decided in the last three years
that the RBI’s equity position, currently around 10 lakh crores, is enough for the
purpose. It therefore has paid out the entire surplus generated to the Government,
amounting to about Rs66,000 crores each in the last two
years, without holding anything back. This is of the order of magnitude of the dividends
paid by the entire public sector to the Government.
In my three years at the RBI, we have
paid almost as much dividend to the government as in the entire previous decade.
Yet some suggest we
should pay more, a special dividend
over and above the surplus we generate. Even if it were legally possible to pay
unrealized surplus (it is not), and even if the Board were convinced a higher dividend
would not
compromise the creditworthiness of
the RBI, there is a more fundamental economic reason why a special dividend would
not help the Government with its budgetary constraints.
Here’s why: Much of the surplus we make
comes from the interest we get on government assets or from the capital gains we
make off other market participants. When we pay this to the government as
dividends,
We are putting back into the system the
money we made from it – there
is no additional money printing or
reserve creation involved. But** whenwe pay a special dividend to the government,
we have to create additional permanent reserves, or more colloquially, print money.
Every year, we have in mind a growth
rate of permanent reserves consistent with the economy’s cash needs and our inflation
goals. Given that budgeted growth rate, to accommodate the special dividend
we will have to withdraw an
equivalent amount of money from the public by selling government bonds in our portfolio
(or alternatively,
doing fewer open market purchases than
we budgeted). Of course, the Government can
use the special dividend to spend, reducing its public borrowing by that amount. But the RBI will have to sell bonds
of exactly that amount to the public in order to stick to its target for money
creation.
The overall net sale of Government bonds
by the Government and the
RBI combined to the public (that is,
the effective public sector borrowing requirement) will not change. But the entire
objective of financing Government spending with a special RBI dividend is to
reduce overall Government bond sales to the public. That objective is not achieved!
The bottom line is that the RBI should
transfer to the government the
entire surplus, retaining just enough buffers that are
consistent with good central bank risk management practice. Indeed, this year the
Board paid out an extra 8,000 crores than was promised to the Government around
budget time.
Separately, the government can infuse
capital into the banks. The two
decisions need not be linked. There are no creative ways
of extracting more money from the RBI– there is no free lunch! Instead, the Government
should acknowledge its substantial equity position in the RBI and subtract it
from its outstanding debt when it announces its net debt position. That would
satisfy all concerned without monetary damage.
If what I have said just now seems complicated,
it is, but it is also the correct economic reasoning. Similar detailed rationales
lead us to turn
down demands to cut interest rates in
the face of high inflation, to depreciate or appreciate the exchange rate depending
on the whim of the moment, to use foreign exchange reserves to fund projects, to
display forbearance in classifying bad loans or waived farmer loans as
NPAs, and so on...
We have been tasked with a job of
maintaining macroeconomic stability, and often that task requires us to refuse
seemingly obvious and attractive proposals. The reason why we have to do what we
have to do may not be easy for every unspecialized person, even ones with substantial
economics training, to grasp quickly.
Of course, we still must explain to the best of our ability but we
also need to create a structure where the public trusts the central bank to do
the right thing. This then is why we need a trusted independent central
Bank.
**This is not
strictly true. Our earnings on
foreign exchange assets come from outside the system, so when we pay this
to the Government as dividend, we are printing additional money. We do account for
this.
*Excerpts from remarks by Raghuram G Rajan, Governor, Reserve Bank
of India on September 3, 2016 at St Stephen’s College, New Delhi.
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